Syrian Airstrike; What If? Unmasking the Fatal Flaw of Deterrence!

Editor's Note: This commentary on yesterday's U.S. air strike on Syria was written by Ralph Hutchison, Coordinator of the Oak Ridge Peace Alliance. It provides a much more thoughtful and broader perspective on the event and its existential ramifications than you will find in the mainstream, corporate media. 

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Trump orders airstrike on Syria. What If?

By Ralph Hutchison

There was little warning. That is the nature of a surprise attack. Still, the reality that our country has carried out an act of war against another country is shocking. Knowing that our historic nuclear-armed nemesis is on the other side, on the ground in that country quickly turned my shock into a heavy dread.

There are many reasons for Russia to stand aside in response to the US attack on a Syrian airbase after Donald Trump was affected by scenes of children who had been murdered by chemical weapons.

There are also reasons for Russia to express concerns about a US President deciding to become the global enforcer of UN conventions without waiting for a greenlight from the security council or anyone else—what seems swift and decisive to President Trump could seem abrupt and impetuous to someone else.

And there could be reasons for Russia to take it personally—if Russian personnel were on the ground at the airbase and were killed in the attack, for instance.

The US President will receive accolades or condemnations from members of Congress and others who agree or disagree with his action. He declared his order to strike the airbase was based on the US’s “vital national security interest” in preventing the spread of chemical weapons. Pundits did not blink an eye; we have grown accustomed to defending any action we deign to take by invoking our vital national interest. In this case, no US citizens or military personnel were harmed by Assad’s horrific attack; no US corporate or government properties were at risk. If the US at this moment now holds UN conventions sacred, one can only hope we apply that same solemn obeisance to the Land Mines Convention and, when it enters into force, the Treaty to Ban Nuclear Weapons.

But the hard looming question of this night is this: What if Russia decides to test the mettle of Donald Trump and the divided United States by countering with firepower in a limited strike? What if Russian personnel were killed in the attack, and Vladimir Putin’s pride requires a concomitant response?

That What If has numbed me this night. That What If is unspeakable on Talk-TV tonight.

How quickly could this spiral out of control—two deeply offended egos, puffing themselves up for the honor of their country, acting decisively, precipitously, provocatively to face down the enemy—

Could one or the other, feeling tested, decide to put any questions to rest by reaching for the nuclear codes?

We pray that would never happen, of course. We pray for our lives, and the lives of future generations. We pray whether or not we believe in God or a god or goddess.

But we cannot pray that it could never happen, and therein lies our deepest problem and the unmasking of the fundamental, fatal flaw in the concept of nuclear deterrence. It could happen.

And the fact that all we can do about it at this moment is pray should motivate every woman, man and child in the country to take up the cause of nuclear disarmament. We don’t all have to be on the same page, we don’t all have to agree on the nuts and bolts or the schedule.

We also don’t all have to sit back and say it can’t be done, because it can. Hundreds of millions of people around the world believe it can. One hundred twenty-three nations that convened last week at the United Nations to discuss a treaty to ban nuclear weapons believe that it can. History says that it can—several countries that once possessed nuclear weapons no longer have stockpiles or manufacturing capabilities. Other countries that could produce their own nuclear weapons have chosen not to.

Only three things are lacking, and they are connected.

One is political will translated into political power—the people, when asked directly, express by large majorities the desire to live in a world free of nuclear weapons.

The second thing lacking is courage to embrace a power greater than our fears.

And the third thing is the liberation of our governing officials in the House and Senate from the golden chains of the nuclear weapons institutions—the corporations and weapons communities and federal agencies that drain the national coffers to build weapons of mass destruction.

Tonight, as we wait to see how Russia might respond and what will happen as this chess game plays out with pieces bathed in blood, we must confront the terrible truth of the times we live in: decisions made by these few men could end us all in one afternoon. Tomorrow afternoon, or the one after that, before we can even reach our children to hug them to our chests.

If that is not acceptable to you, find a group working for the abolition of nuclear weapons—not talking about it, but working for it—and throw yourself behind them. If you belong to such a group already, double down. If you can’t find a group, start one. Nothing is more important.

Original Source URL: http://orepa.org/trump-orders-airstrike-on-syria-what-if/

Nuclear Weapons Do Not Make Us Safer!!!

What crazy times these are? But then again, hasn't the entire nuclear age been pretty crazy? At a recent youth forum, Vladimir Putin made the most significant nuclear threat in decades. “I want to remind you that Russia is one of the most powerful nuclear nations. This is a reality, not just words.”

Earlier today a young engineer in his early 20s, who I have known for many years, engaged me in a conversation about radioactive decay and how to survive a nuclear war. It seems like the day's of duck and cover that many of us grew up with during the Cold War may be returning. One can't help but think of the insanity in all of this. The Cold War ended well over a couple decades ago, and yet we seem to be watching a new Cold War unfolding. 

He's no puppy dog!

If one watches too much of certain news channels, one could easily be led to believe that it's those evil Russians once again, with Vladimir Putin taking the place of Nikita ("We will bury you!") Khrushchev. So Putin may not be some choir boy, but hey - Obama (and the U.S.) isn't exactly blameless. We continue to pursue a nuclear weapons renaissance, and since the fall of the Berlin Wall have been pushing NATO (bad drug that it is) as if we were an out-of-control drug cartel.

It is time for Obama and Putin to sit down like two adults (who just happen to preside over what are evidently still the two superpowers) and come to grips with the conflicts they have created. And, it is certainly time for them to sit down and negotiate a serious reduction in the two nation's nuclear arsenals. Russia and the U.S. can and must lead the way to a nuclear weapons-free world.

Deterrence is a relic, and should we continue pretending that it is a valid doctrine into the rest of this century, humanity will be in grave peril. The risk of nuclear war (and its consequences) is simply unacceptable. David Krieger states it directly and succinctly in the following letter to the editor recently published in The Washington Post.

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Letter: Nuclear Weapons Do Not Make Us Safer

by David Krieger

This letter to the editor of the Washington Post was published on August 22, 2014.

Are NATO-based nuclear weapons really an advantage in a dangerous world, as Brent Scowcroft, Stephen J. Hadley and Franklin Miller suggested in their Aug. 18 op-ed, “A dangerous proposition”? They are not. They make the world a far more dangerous place.

David Krieger

Nuclear deterrence is not a guarantee of security. Rather, it is a hypothesis about human behavior, a hypothesis that has come close to failing on many occasions. Additionally, nuclear weapons are not “political weapons,” as the writers asserted. They are weapons of mass extermination.

The United States and the other nuclear-armed countries are obligated under the terms of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and/or customary international law to pursue negotiations in good faith for an end to the nuclear arms race and complete nuclear disarmament. This is the substance of the Nuclear Zero lawsuits brought by the Marshall Islands against the nine nuclear-armed countries at the International Court of Justice and in U.S. federal court. The United States continues to evade its obligations.

Rather than continuing to posture with its nuclear weapons in Europe, the United States should be leading the way in convening negotiations to eliminate all nuclear weapons for its own security and that of all the world’s inhabitants.

David Krieger, Santa Barbara, Calif.

The writer is president of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation.

A Wish for Humanity in the Season of Light

(Written by The Nuclear Abolitionist in December 2012.  With a nod to Clement Moore, the author of the poem "Twas the night before Christmas")

Twas the day before Christmas
and all through the morning
all the missiles were ready
to be launched on warning.

In subs and silos and bombers aplenty
warriors sat with their nukes at the ready.

In the capitols of all the nuclear powers
world leaders consulted in their ivory towers,
about how to maintain nuclear superiority
while keeping other nations well below parity.

Relations between nations were obviously strained
as the US and Russia kept playing their games.
Talk of disarmament continued to fissile
while weapons makers continued to build missiles.

The risk of nuclear war continues to increase
while pentagon planners refuse to cease
making lunatic plans with increasing urgence
using outdated models like nuclear deterrence.

The Prince of Peace would be coming soon
with humanity at the edge of impending doom.
After decades of living under the Sword of Damocles
humanity had not brought the nuclear menace to its knees.

Courageous people kept sounding the alarm
While humanity ignored their warnings of harm.
How long can this madness continue to go on
as nations continue to rely on the bomb?

Now the mist is lifting, it is Christmas Morn.
The world is spared from the nuclear storm.
The Baby is born away in a manger
and Peace is the watchword in our time of danger.

The angels sing out with prophetic voice,
Disarm, Disarm, is the only sane choice.
We must disarm hearts before all the weapons
Or build them again we will as it happens.

Peace on Earth, and Goodwill to All Peoples
May the clarion call ring out from the steeples.

May the people demand the nonviolent choice
and around the world speak out in one voice
for an end to the violence within our souls
that will bring to us all such unspeakable tolls.

A wish for humanity in this Season of Light,
Nonviolence to all, and to all a good night.