King & Obama: A Tale of Two Legacies

Friends,

On January 26th the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists will announce whether the minute hand of the historic “Doomsday Clock” will be adjusted. . The Doomsday Clock is that icon of the nuclear age that, since 1947, has conveyed “how close we are to destroying our civilization with dangerous technologies of our own making.” The hands of the clock are currently at 3 Minutes to Midnight, and one can only hope they will not be set closer to that fateful hour.

Much of the world knows Dr. King as one of the great peacemakers of all time. What many people are not aware of is just how deep was King's opposition not only to war, but also to nuclear weapons.

Dr. King warned us, in his famous “World House” essay that:

When scientific power outruns spiritual power, we end up with guided missiles and misguided men.

As we consider the current and pending position of the minute hand on the Doomsday Clock in the context of Dr. King's recent birthday it is hard not to consider the stark contrast between his legacy and the legacy being created by U.S. President Barack Obama. Two Nobel Peace Prize recipients - two radically different paths.

Dr. King was an extraordinary orator. His words flowed deep from within his spiritual consciousness that was rooted in the struggles of human beings for their basic rights. They inspired people to come together in the spirit of nonviolence to build a better world. He most certainly lived out the words he spoke.

On the other hand President Obama, a prisoner of the National Security State and Military-Industrial Complex, is quite the orator, although his rhetoric has fallen far short. In his famous 2009 Prague speech Obama stated, “America's commitment to see the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons,” and specified that the United States would “reduce the role of nuclear weapons in our national security strategy, and urge others to do the same.” Nearly seven years later these words are nothing but empty promises.

Rebuilding the infrastructure that develops, builds and maintains nuclear weapons is not "progress." Rebuilding nuclear warheads and bombs is not “progress.” Moving ahead with plans to build a new generation of ballistic missile submarines, bombers, and land based missiles is most certainly not “progress.”

As the President begins his last year in office, and with the greatest nuclear weapons modernization effort (since the end of the Cold War) underway, we must ask what legacy will he leave?

What would Dr. King say to President Obama as he approaches final year in office? I imagine him speaking of the President's two daughters and asking,"Mr. President, what legacy do you want to leave for your children Malia and Sasha, and indeed what legacy do you want to leave for all the children of the world? Mr. President, just when is our nation going to truly lead the world to peace? When will we learn to live together in this great big World House that we all share? You and I know, Mr. President, that the alternative to disarmament is the dark abyss of annihilation? So Mr. President, what legacy will it be?"

Getting back on track toward Obama's vision in his Prague speech will require extraordinary vision, engagement and decisive action. Engagement and action already face strong opposition on many levels in both the civilian and military sectors of the government and on Wall Street. The President will not be moved to lead the world toward disarmament without significant prodding from civil society.

Certainly, since the end of the Cold War, a malaise set in as people assumed the peace dividend had eradicated the nuclear menace, and so they went about business as usual. Yet, the few in control of humanity's destiny have continued to make preparations for the unspeakable.

It is time for all citizens, and not just a small percentage, to be informed about the issues surrounding nuclear weapons and how they affect all of us. It is time for citizens to step forward and become engaged in decisions that were never in their hands in the first place, but should have been. It is time to bring nuclear weapons into the center of a public dialogue and debate, and for the citizenry to make its voice heard loud and clear in the halls of The White House, Congress and the Pentagon (and beyond).

If this United States in which we live is to be a true democracy, then it is up to us as citizens to make it so. And there is no greater issue, in terms of the survival of humanity, in which we can (and must) become engaged than the abolition of nuclear weapons.

Dr. King once said that "The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice." King understood that change (at least lasting change) does not occur overnight. It is a long, hard struggle, as evidenced by every struggle for human rights throughout history.

Therein lies one major difference between Dr. King and President Obama. In his Prague speech, Obama recognized that, "This goal will not be reached quickly –- perhaps not in my lifetime." The difference is that Dr. King didn't stop working toward his goals even though he knew they may not be realized in his lifetime.

We, as citizens, must remind President Obama that he needs to change course and be in this for the long haul - for the sake of his children and all the children of the world. And – We must do it now!

So - Happy Birthday Martin. May our gift to you be our commitment to a nonviolent world free of the scourges of war and nuclear weapons.

Peace,

Leonard

It is 3 minutes to midnight (and counting)!!!

Earlier today the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announced that it was moving the hands of the famous Doomsday Clock ahead, from 5 minutes to midnight to 3 minutes to midnight.

The Bulletin created the Doomsday Clock in 1947 "using the imagery of apocalypse (midnight) and the contemporary idiom of nuclear explosion (countdown to zero) to convey threats to humanity and the planet." Each year the distinguished scientists of the Bulletin's Science and Security Board decide whether or not to move the minute hands of the Doomsday Clock.

This year's decision considered many factors, and nuclear weapons figure prominently in it. The optimism that came with the end of the Cold War has disappeared due to two principal factors - "nuclear weapons modernization programs and nuclear disarmament machinery that has ground to a halt." The world is on the brink of a new and dangerous nuclear arms race.

The announcement begins with this:

In 2015, unchecked climate change, global nuclear weapons modernizations, and outsized nuclear weapons arsenals pose extraordinary and undeniable threats to the continued existence of humanity, and world leaders have failed to act with the speed or on the scale required to protect citizens from potential catastrophe. These failures of political leadership endanger every person on Earth. 

In 1984, as the United States began a major defense build-up that included the pursuit of a potentially destabilizing ballistic missile defense system, relations between the United States and the Soviet Union reached an icy nadir. "Every channel of communications has been constricted or shut down; every form of contact has been attenuated or cut off. And arms control negotiations have been reduced to a species of propaganda," the Bulletin wrote then, in explaining why the hands of the Doomsday Clock had been moved to three minutes to midnight, the closest they had been to catastrophe since the early days of above-ground hydrogen bomb testing. 

Today, more than 25 years after the end of the Cold War, the members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Science and Security Board have looked closely at the world situation and found it highly threatening to humanity—so threatening that the hands of the Doomsday Clock must once again be set at three minutes to midnight, two minutes closer to catastrophe than in 2014.

Today's announcement focuses on the current and potential risks posed to humanity by nuclear weapons, climate change and emerging technologies. These risks, when combined, pose extraordinary challenges to the very survival of humanity, and it is the "stunning governmental failures [that] have imperiled civilization on a global scale." The scientists of the Bulletin make it clear that time is short, and that we as citizens must demand that our nations' leaders take action before it is too late.

Here is how the announcement wraps it up:

The threat is serious, the time short. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists does not move the hands of the Doomsday Clock for light or transient reasons. The clock ticks now at just three minutes to midnight because international leaders are failing to perform their most important duty—ensuring and preserving the health and vitality of human civilization. 

During the past several years, the Bulletin's Science and Security Board has grown increasingly concerned as world political leaders dithered, leaving an undeniable threat to the future of mankind—climate change—largely unaddressed. In 2014, leaders in the nuclear weapons countries have consented to a mad dash down an expensive and dangerous path toward "modernizing" their nuclear arsenals; in the process, they turned away from reasonable disarmament efforts and allowed an economic dispute between Ukraine and Russia to turn into an East-West confrontation that hinders cooperation on worldwide nuclear security, arms control, and nonproliferation. 

These stunning governmental failures have imperiled civilization on a global scale, and so we, the members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Science and Security Board, implore the citizens of the world to speak clearly, demanding that their leaders: 

• Take actions that would cap greenhouse gas emissions at levels sufficient to keep average global temperature from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. The 2-degree target is consistent with consensus views on climate science and is eminently achievable and economically viable—if national leaders show more interest in protecting their citizens than in serving the economic interests of the fossil fuel industry. 

• Dramatically reduce proposed spending on nuclear weapons modernization programs. The United States and Russia have hatched plans to essentially rebuild their entire nuclear triads in coming decades, and other nuclear weapons countries are following suit. The projected costs of these "improvements" to nuclear arsenals are indefensible, and they undermine the global disarmament regime.  

• Re-energize the disarmament process, with a focus on results. The United States and Russia, in particular, need to start negotiations on shrinking their strategic and tactical nuclear arsenals. The world can be more secure with much, much smaller nuclear arsenals than now exist—if political leaders are truly interested in protecting their citizens from harm.  

• Deal now with the commercial nuclear waste problem. Reasonable people can disagree on whether an expansion of nuclear-powered electricity generation should be a major component of the effort to limit climate change. Regardless of the future course of the worldwide nuclear power industry, there will be a need for safe and secure interim and permanent nuclear waste storage facilities.  

• Create institutions specifically assigned to explore and address potentially catastrophic misuses of new technologies. Scientific advance can provide society with great benefits, but the potential for misuse of potent new technologies is real, unless government, scientific, and business leaders take appropriate steps to explore and address possible devastating consequences of those technologies early in their development. 

Last year, with the Doomsday Clock at five minutes to midnight, the members of the Science and Security Board concluded their assessment of the world security situation by writing: "We can manage our technology, or become victims of it. The choice is ours, and the Clock is ticking." 

In 2015, with the Clock hand moved forward to three minutes to midnight, the board feels compelled to add, with a sense of great urgency: "The probability of global catastrophe is very high, and the actions needed to reduce the risks of disaster must be taken very soon."

The scientists of the Bulletin have provided the blueprint for moving ahead. They have also made clear what many of us have been saying for years - that governments will not take the necessary steps unless we, as global citizens, demand it of them. They have, for far too long, been locked in the grip of massive corporate machines that serve only their own interests. It is high time that those who govern begin the work of "ensuring and preserving the health and vitality of human civilization." 

The people who make the decision to move the minute hand of the Doomsday Clock ahead do not do so lightly. These are scientists, not alarmists. They employed sound, scientific reasoning to reach their decision, and we must listen and understand the gravity of the situation. As they concluded, "The probability of global catastrophe is very high," and the consequences to humanity would be unacceptable. We must take action, and we must take it now.

Each of us needs to stand up and pressure our government to take action on the issues raised by the Bulletin. Send a copy of the Bulletin's announcement to President Obama, your representatives in Congress, and anyone else you think should read it. Ask them to read it and reply to you, explaining how they plan to respond to the Bulletin's call to action. Do not settle for anything less than a full commitment to action.

We cannot turn back the hands of time, and we certainly cannot undo the damage we have already done. We can, however, make the difficult, yet critical, choices that will provide a livable world for future generations, and thereby turn back the hands of the Doomsday Clock.

Time is short, and "the clock is ticking."

Click here to read the full text of today's announcement.

Click here to watch today's announcement and press conference.

Doomsday Clock Stays at 5 Minutes to Midnight; Can We Move the Hand Back???

Once more the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists have announced the position of the well-known and iconic Doomsday Clock, which, since 1947 has symbolized (to quote The Bulletin) "the urgency of the nuclear dangers that the magazine's founders--and the broader scientific community--are trying to convey to the public and political leaders around the world."

This is NOT Chicken Little screaming "The sky is falling..."  This is a respected, knowledgeable, scientifically-grounded group of individuals who come together in consensus on the most difficult and important issues of our time.

Earlier today The Bulletin announced that the hands of the Doomsday Clock would remain where they have been since 2012, at 5 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT. This is not good news. Time is short, and the proverbial (and literal) waters are rising.  We must act now.

 Read on to hear what the experts have to say, and then take action.  As citizens, it is our right and duty to help bring our nations' leaders to their senses for humanity's sake. If we do not act now the chances of moving the minute hand of the Doomsday Clock back are slim. We can and must abolish nuclear weapons once and for all, and we must start moving forward now to reverse!!!

*********************************

DOOMSDAY CLOCK 

STAYS AT 

FIVE MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

CHICAGO -- January 14, 2014 -- The Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists today called on the United States and Russia to restart negotiations on reducing their nuclear arsenals, to lower alert levels for their nuclear weapons, and to scrap their missile defense programs.

The Board also implored world leaders to take immediate action to combat climate change as it announced that the minute hand of the Bulletin’s iconic Doomsday Clock will remain at five minutes to midnight because “the risk of civilization-threatening technological catastrophe remains high.”

The Board’s annual announcement on the status of the Doomsday Clock was addressed this year to United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon and members of the UN Security Council. In the announcement, the Bulletin’s Board of leading science and security experts acknowledged that 2013 included positive developments in negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program and in the production of renewable energy.

But, the Board noted, those developments came within a “business-as-usual” context that has stalled efforts to shrink nuclear arsenals and reduce climate-altering greenhouse gas emissions. And beyond the threats of nuclear weapons and climate change lie a host of emerging technological dangers—including cyber weapons and killer robots—that further endanger humanity, the Board said.

“As always, new technologies hold the promise of doing great good, supplying new sources of clean energy, curing disease, and otherwise enhancing our lives. From experience, however, we also know that new technologies can be used to diminish humanity and destroy societies,” the Board wrote. “We can manage our technology, or become victims of it. The choice is ours, and the Clock is ticking.”

The minute hand of the Doomsday Clock has been at five minutes to midnight since January 2012. In explaining why the hand would remain so close to figurative doomsday, the Bulletin’s science and security experts focused on the failure of world leaders to take action that would reduce the possibility of catastrophe related to nuclear weapons and climate change.

The Board noted that after Russia offered political asylum to Edward Snowden, the former National Security Agency contractor who leaked US classified documents and created an international media sensation, US President Barack Obama called off a planned summit with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. There appears to have been little movement since on nuclear agreements between the two countries.

The Bulletin’s experts asked UN leaders to demand that the United States and Russia return to the negotiating table. “Once there,” the Board wrote, “they should take the courageous steps needed to further shrink their nuclear arsenals, to scrap their deployment of destabilizing missile defenses, and to reduce the alert levels of their nuclear weapons.”

The Board also called on world leaders to show courage in battling domestic political trends that have stalled efforts to address climate change. These trends include serious threats to renewable-energy support in the United States, the European Union, and Australia and are exemplified by Japan’s withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol and refusal to honor promises on voluntary greenhouse gas emissions reductions.

“The science on climate change is clear, and many people around the world already are suffering from destructive storms, water and food insecurity, and extreme temperatures,” the Board wrote. “It is no longer possible to prevent all climate change, but you can limit further suffering—if you act now.”

HOW THE DOOMSDAY CLOCK WAS SET

The January 14, 2014 Doomsday Clock decision followed an international symposium held in November 2013 at the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington, DC. The Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, in consultation with the Governing Board and the Board of Sponsors, which includes 18 Nobel Laureates, reviewed the implications of recent events and trends for the future of humanity with input from other experts on nuclear weapons, nuclear energy, climate change, and emerging threats. The Clock hand has been moved 20 times over the past 65 years, since its appearance in 1947 on the first cover of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

Click HERE for the Science and Security Board’s Clock announcement.

Click HERE to watch video of the November Doomsday Clock symposium.

ABOUT THE BULLETIN OF THE ATOMIC SCIENTISTS

Founded in 1945 by University of Chicago scientists who had helped develop the first atomic weapons in the Manhattan Project, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists created the Doomsday Clock in 1947, using the imagery of apocalypse (midnight) and the contemporary idiom of nuclear explosion (countdown to zero) to convey threats to humanity and the planet. The Clock has become a universally recognized indicator of the world's vulnerability to catastrophe from nuclear weapons, climate change, and emerging technologies in the information and life sciences. The Bulletin won a National Magazine Award for General Excellence in 2007.

MEDIA CONTACT: Janice Sinclaire, 707.481.9372, or jsinclaire@thebulletin.org.

King's Legacy!!! Obama's Legacy???

Friends,

Today is the birthday of Martin Luther King, Jr. - just one day after The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announced that the Doomsday Clock will stay at five minutes to midnight (at least for now).

Much of the world knows Dr. King as one of the great peacemakers of all time.  What many people are not aware of is just how deep was King's opposition not only to war, but also to nuclear weapons.

I wrote about this earlier in January in a tribute to Dr. King's legacy.  I will not say more about that here except to say that the following quote speaks volumes to the depth of King's understanding of the taproot of violence so deep in the tortured soul of the national security state.

When scientific power outruns spiritual power, we end up with guided missiles and misguided men.

As we consider the position of the minute hand on the Doomsday Clock in the context of Dr. King's birthday it is hard not to consider the contrast between the legacy he left and the one being created by U.S. President Barack Obama.  Two Nobel Peace Prize recipients - two radically different paths.

Dr. King was an extraordinary orator.  His words flowed deep from within his spiritual consciousness that was rooted in the struggles of human beings for their basic rights.  He lived out the words he spoke.

On the other hand President Obama, a prisoner of the National Security State and Military-Industrial Complex, is quite the orator, although his rhetoric falls far short.  As yesterday's open letter from The Bulletin reminds the President, "In 2009 you stood in Hradcany Square and boldly stated: 'America's commitment to see the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons,' and you specified that the United States will 'reduce the role of nuclear weapons in our national security strategy, and urge others to do the same.'"  Four years later these words seem like empty promises.

The authors of the letter to Obama were correct to state that "we see progress," a few positive steps need to be viewed in a total context.  Rebuilding the infrastructure that develops, builds and maintains nuclear weapons is not "progress."  Rebuilding nuclear warheads and bombs is not progress.  Moving ahead with plans to build a new generation of ballistic missile submarines is not progress.

As the letter stated, "2012 was a year of unrealized opportunity..."  And now the President is about to embark on another four years in office.  What path will he take?  What legacy will he leave?

What would Dr. King say to President Obama as he approaches the eve of another four years?  I imagine him speaking of the President's two daughters and asking,"Mr. President, what legacy do you want to leave for your children Malia and Sasha, and indeed what legacy do you want to leave for all the children of the world?  Mr. President, just when is our nation going to truly lead the world to peace?  When will we learn to live together in this great big World House that we all share?  You and I know, Mr. President, that the alternative to disarmament is the abyss of annihilation?  So Mr. President, what legacy will it be?"

The letter from The Bulletin is a positive model for moving forward, and its authors stated that "we see 2013 as a year for vision and engagement."  They further stated that "decisive action can make the world safer."

Indeed, to get back on track toward Obama's vision in his Prague speech it will require both vision, engagement AND decisive action.  Beyond vision, engagement and action already face strong opposition on many levels in both the civilian and military sectors of the government and on Wall Street.  The President will NOT be moved to lead the world toward disarmament without significant prodding beyond the letter from The Bulletin.

As the letter stated in the first sentence, "2012 was a year in which the problems of the world pressed forward, but too many of its citizens stood back."  Indeed, the vast majority of the nation (and the rest of the world) stood back while the few in control of humanity's destiny continued to make preparations for the unspeakable.

It is time for all citizens, and not just a small percentage, to be informed about the issues surrounding nuclear weapons and how they affect all of us.  It is time for citizens to step forward and become engaged in decisions that were never in their hands in the first place, but should have been.  It is time to bring nuclear weapons into the center of a public dialogue and debate, and for the citizenry to make its voice heard loud and clear in the halls of The White House, Congress and the Pentagon.

If this United States in which we live is to be a democracy, then it is up to us as citizens to make it so.  And there is no greater issue, in terms of the survival of humanity, in which we can (and must) become engaged.

Dr. King once said that "The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice."  King understood that change (at least lasting change) does not occur overnight.  It is a long, hard struggle, as evidenced by every struggle for human rights throughout history.

Therein lies one major difference between Dr. King and President Obama.  Obama, in his Prague speech, recognized that "This goal will not be reached quickly –- perhaps not in my lifetime."  The difference is that Dr. King didn't stop working toward a goal even though he knew it may not be realized in his lifetime.  We, as citizens, must remind President Obama that he needs to be in this for the long haul - for the sake of his children and all the children of the world.

Happy Birthday Martin.  May our gift to you on this day be our commitment to a nonviolent world free of the scourges of war and nuclear weapons.

In Peace,

Leonard

The HOUR is getting late!!!

Friends,

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists says "It is Now 5 Minutes to Midnight."

It should come as no surprise that this respected organization has moved the clock (on January 10th) an inch closer to the witching hour.  It is black magic, indeed, that causes the clock to inch closer to midnight.  As described on their Website:

The Doomsday Clock conveys how close humanity is to catastrophic destruction--the figurative midnight--and monitors the means humankind could use to obliterate itself. First and foremost, these include nuclear weapons, but they also encompass climate-changing technologies and new developments in the life sciences that could inflict irrevocable harm.

Just two years ago The Bulletin spoke hopefully as it set the clock back one minute (away from Midnight) saying,"We are poised to bend the arc of history toward a world free of nuclear weapons." That tempered enthusiasm was rooted in negotiations between Washington and Moscow for a follow-on agreement to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, along with ongoing negotiations for further reductions in the U.S. and Russian nuclear nuclear arsenals.  There were also "pockets of progress" addressing climate change.

Yet, in just two years those hopes quickly faded as it has become evident that nations, in particular the United States and Russia, are not only hesitant to disarm, but are re-arming at an alarming rate; not much of an example for the rest of the world. As for climate change, it is clearly evident that Nero fiddles even while Rome burns.  As The Bulletin summarizes the situation:

The challenges to rid the world of nuclear weapons, harness nuclear power, and meet the nearly inexorable climate disruptions from global warming are complex and interconnected. In the face of such complex problems, it is difficult to see where the capacity lies to address these challenges.

The Bulletin's Doomsday Clock is in a very real sense a prophetic voice, a clarion call to all who will listen.  And listen we must, or turn away at humanity's peril.  The longer we put off facing these issues, the greater the probability that the clock will once again start ticking,moving closer to midnight. 

In 1953 the clock reached 2 minutes to midnight, the closest in its history, after the U.S. tested its first thermonuclear bomb.  In its 1953 statement The Bulletin said:

Only a few more swings of the pendulum, and, from Moscow to Chicago, atomic explosions will strike midnight for Western civilization.

Disarmament is obviously not forthcoming from the halls of The White House, Congress or the Pentagon (or the Kremlin for that matter).  It is up to We The People to rise up and demand good faith efforts toward disarmament, and of course simultaneous efforts to control global proliferation and move all nations toward a nuclear weapons free world.  It is time to re-energize the global movement toward that goal.

Watch from Hiroshima

It is time to shout out in every capital city,

"Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Never Again!!!"

Peace,

Leonard

Read the announcements at The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists:

Doomsday Clock Moves 1 minute closer to midnight

Doomsday Clock moves to five minutes to midnight

Read the timeline of the Doomsday Clock: http://thebulletin.org/content/doomsday-clock/timeline

It's 5 Minutes to Midnight... Do You Know Where Your Nukes Are???

Friends,

In 1947 the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists unveiled the Doomsday Clock.  As the Cold War was taking off and the Superpowers were engaged in a nuclear weapons race, the Doomsday Clock was designed to convey to the public and world political leaders the urgency of the dangers that nuclear weapons presented.  When it first appeared on the cover of the magazine the clock's hands were set at 7 minutes to midnight.

Since 1947 the clock has been reset 18 times, getting as close as 2 minutes to midnight in 1953 after the U.S. and Soviet Union tested the first Hydrogen bombs.  The Bulletin's announcement said, "Only a few more swings of the pendulum, and, from Moscow to Chicago, atomic explosions will strike midnight for Western civilization."  The clock also moved away from midnight, getting as far as 17 minutes to midnight after the end of the cold war with the U.S. and Russia making significant progress in reducing their total arsenals.

On January 17, 2007, the Bulletin announced that it was moving the Doomsday Clock two minutes closer to midnight, setting the hands at 5 minutes to midnight.  With the U.S. and Russia still ready to launch 2000 nuclear weapons in minutes, concerns about North Korea and Iran, and the threats posed by climate change, the Bulletin's Board of Directors and Board of Sponsors (which includes 18 Nobel Laureates) stated that, "We stand at the brink of a second nuclear age."

Three years later, on Thursday, January 14, 2010, The Bulletin is poised to reset the Doomsday Clock once again.  This is the big time folks!  Forget the Super bowl. Forget the Academy Awards.  This is the BIG event for those of us concerned with nuclear weapons.  The Bulletin is a trusted source for rational, scientifically based information and opinion on nuclear weapons, and the Doomsday Clock has always been a barometer - a sort of State of the Nukes - for nuclear abolitionists. 

As for predictions whether the minute hand will move farther or closer to midnight, let's just say that if I were a betting person, I would be putting my money on 3 minutes to midnight.  That being said, we can count on sound reasoning coming out of the folks at The Bulletin.

Be sure to tune in on Thursday, January 14th at 10:00 AM, Eastern Standard Time (of 3:00 PM GMT for European readers) for the live streaming of the event from the New York Academy of Sciences.  You can click on the screen below, or go to http://www.turnbacktheclock.org/.  


DOOMSDAY CLOCK ANNOUNCEMENT from TurnBackTheClock.org on Vimeo.

Whether the hands of time will give us an apparent bit of breathing room or create more urgency, we know that the success of the struggle for nuclear abolition is critical to the future of humankind.  It continues to be up to all of us in this movement to do our part, and to keep the pressure on our governments, particularly as we approach the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty Review Conference in the Spring of 2010.

Let us continue to work hard in 2010 to help prevent the clock from ever striking the midnight hour.

Peace,

Leonard

Click here to read the January, 2007 announcement that moved the clock to 5 minutes to midnight.

Click here to read the Doomsday Clock timeline.

Watching the Doomsday Clock...

Friends,

Do you know what time it is??? No, not the time of day, but the proximity of humanity to catastrophic destruction, that time being the midnight hour. The Doomsday Clock was created by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists to convey the urgency of the nuclear dangers faced by humanity. First set at 7 minutes to midnight in 1947, the minute hand has been moved back and forth over six decades, and is now set at 5 minutes to midnight.

The clock has been set as close as 2 minutes to midnight when the U.S. and then Soviet Union tested the first thermonuclear bombs, and as distant as 17 minutes to midnight in 1991 as the Cold War officially ended and even the scientists at The Bulletin were led to believe that the U.S. and Russia were moving well away from the brink. Read the full Doomsday Clock timeline here.

It was announced this week that President Obama has decided not to pursue his predecessor's foolhardy plan to deploy a missile defense system in Eastern Europe. Aside from the technical problems with the unproven plan, it was extraordinarily destabilizing to any negotiations with the Russians on disarmament and nonproliferation.

Of course, the President's announcement does not mean that missile defense is history. There are already many other elements of the missile defense network in development and in place (on land, at sea and in the air), and the U.S. may still consider siting future systems in Turkey, Israel or the Balkans; the implications of such decisions on future disarmament efforts could be problematic. It might benefit President Obama to study the history of U.S. nuclear weapons in Turkey, for example, particularly during the Kennedy/Khrushchev years.

For all the hand wringing over Iran and its nuclear weapons and missile capabilities, the U.S. would do well to step back and take a more objective look at the situation before spending billions more dollars on missile defense. The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists released a special Web Edition yesterday - European Missile Defense Reversed - that takes a hard look at the topic.

Whether the next movement of the Doomsday Clock will move us closer to or farther from the nuclear abyss will depend greatly on the decisions made by world leaders. Based on the U.S. experience, in which we have already seen a frenzy of development of missile defense systems, it will take a huge effort by the people to overcome the inertia of the deeply entrenched military-industrial complex. Missile defense is $$$$$$$ (Can you say BIG BUSINESS?) down the drain; not what I would call a secure, long-term investment; more like a wildly speculative hedge fund. Detente and diplomacy represent money in the bank like an old-fashioned savings account.

As for me, I'll take the old-fashioned savings account any day, building peaceful relations through a gradual process of give and take (and a lot less take than the U.S. has previously demonstrated). The President's announcement on European missile defense should not make us neglect this issue! We need to keep a close eye on this one, and much like a shell game it will require a very, very keen eye.

Peace,

Leonard

Read Obama Scraps European Missile Defense Initiative, Global Security Newswire, Thursday, Sept. 17, 2009

Check out the newest articles on European missile defense at the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

If you want to do some heavy reading/research, read what some have called a "devastating report" by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (March 2009), DEFENSE ACQUISITIONS: Production and Fielding of Missile Defense Components Continue with Less Testing and Validation Than Planned.

North Korea Goes Nuclear! Let's Not!

Friends,

Right now from D.C. to Seoul, politicians and diplomats are scurrying about trying to figure out how to react to North Korea's most recent nuclear antics. And that is the problem - REACTION. This just another shot across the bow by the North Koreans, flexing their (still forming) nuclear muscles. I will leave the technical analysis for the experts (see The Bulletin below), but it is safe to say that much of the the world is (over)reacting .

U.S. President Obama made a brief statement on the day of the test that was a succinct and measured response. We can only hope that President Obama will not employ the sketchy rhetoric of his predecessor. He is, however, under tremendous pressure to show "strength"; no matter what he says, the North Koreans will be unimpressed at best.

The most important thing that President Obama can do right now is to continue focusing serious attention on a number of issues, among them:

• Keeping the momentum on the recent START negotiations, ensuring ratification.
• Ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
• Re-energizing the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (but never hiring anyone remotely resembling the likes of Paul Wolfowitz again!)
• De-alerting all nuclear weapons (unilaterally), and challenging President Medvedev to do the same.
• Pursue U.S. support for the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty
• Demonstrate that the U.S. is serious about creating a truly binding Treaty On The Non-Proliferation Of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) with time frames

The best thing that everyone can do at the moment is to take a deep breath, and then get back to work on current efforts at disarmament and non-proliferation.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the people who brought you that icon of the Nuclear Age, the DOOMSDAY CLOCK, have put together a special Web edition all about the most recent North Korean nuclear test. CLICK HERE to read it and find out everything you want to know (and a few things you might not, but need to). As one of the articles in The Bulletin notes, "some analysts will use Pyongyang's nuclear test to question the feasibility of a nuclear-weapon-free world. But they're missing the point--a world full of nuclear weapons hasn't deterred North Korea either." Ain't that the truth!

I also recommend David Krieger's article, North Korea's Bomb Test Message, in which reminds us that, "North Korea’s nuclear testing is a manifestation of a deeper problem in the international system, that of continuing to have a small group of countries possess and implicitly threaten the use of nuclear weapons for deterrence or any other reason."

This is not the time to let Pyongyang throw disarmament efforts off track; everyone needs to stay focused.

Peace,

Leonard

Cartoon Credit: The political cartoon portraying the nuclear powers (and the former U.S. president) so appropriately is by Steve Bell of the Guardian, C2008, source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/cartoons/stevebell/0,,1891803,00.html

It's 5 Minutes to Midnight. Do You Know Where Your Nukes Are?

Friends,

The hands of the Doomsday Clock, that icon of the nuclear age that conveys just how close humanity is to catastrophic destruction (primarily from nuclear weapons) rest at 5 minutes to midnight. The clock, created by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists in 1947, was initially set at 7 minutes to midnight, symbolizing the urgency of the nuclear dangers of that time. Since then the clock has been as close as 2 minutes in 1949 (with the creation and testing of the hydrogen bomb), and as far as 17 minutes in 1991 (when the Cold War ended). Click here for the full timeline.

Since 1991 the clock has inched closer to midnight for many reasons, among them the fading of the Cold War peace dividend, India and Pakistan's nuclear ambitions, and the risks of unsecured nuclear weapons. The most recent position (5 minutes) was set in 2007 as the world stood "at the brink of a second nuclear age", with the United States and Russia still poised to "stage a nuclear attack within minutes", along with concerns about North Korea, Iran and global warming.

Today the hands of the clock still show 5 minutes to midnight, and for good reason. The concerns that caused the hands to move 2 minutes closer still exist, and tensions have increased with Russia, Iran and North Korea. In addition, tensions between India and Pakistan are heating up once again. Israel is heating up the Middle East with its most recent military escapades.

The question now is, "Can we turn back the clock?" This is not just some crazy question of theoretical physics about time and space. This is a question of the survival of humankind. We are, indeed, at the brink of a second nuclear age. But this one will not be as stable as the previous one was (with two relatively evenly matched and stable players with everything to lose). There are new players in this high stakes game where there are really no winners.

With a new president in The White House we have just the opportunity we need to turn back the clock. But it will require the engagement of the American People in an issue that most have found untouchable since the dawn of the nuclear age. President Obama has stated his desire to rid the world of nuclear weapons, but is taking a cautious approach. Of course, every president has stated the desire (to one degree or another) to get rid of nukes, but history has shown that the rhetoric has been hollow.

We, the American people, will need to support the President in his initiatives and prod him where he falls short if we are to succeed in progressing towards abolition. David Krieger of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation has examined eight reasons why the public has not been engaged in nuclear disarmament. Whether you are engaged as an individual or as part of an organization you should read Nuclear Weapons After Bush: A Role for the People. We need to bring nuclear weapons into the everyday dialogue of the American people if we are to progress in what is arguably the most inconvenient truth of our time.

While you are at it, consider sending President Obama an email asking him to take some immediate (and some not-so-immediate) steps to lessen the nuclear danger. Among those steps is taking our nuclear weapons off high-alert status, a dangerous practice, considering the potential for breaches of the military's communication's network by hackers, potentially causing false alerts and launch orders. It's not as far fetched as you might think. Read more on this at Slate.com by clicking here.

With a new administration (but the same old Pentagon) in place, NOW is the time to start advocating for real progress on nuclear disarmament. President Obama needs our help and prodding to succeed.

Peace,

Leonard